BACKTEST · CAUSAL

The numbers, with their honest labels.

Diversified trend, 2006–2026, strictly causal, volatility-targeted, costs included. No look-ahead, no curve-fit.

Sharpe (20y)

0.69

CAGR

9.7%

Max drawdown

26%

Growth of $100k

$1.06M

Equity curve — growth of $100,000

Calendar-year returns

Intermarket scorer — OOS walk-forward Sharpe

We publish the bad number too. The intermarket scorer's single split looked like Sharpe 0.78; honest rolling walk-forward is ~0.5 and its deflated Sharpe is ~0.04 — so we deploy the un-over-optimized exposure. What deflated Sharpe means →

Live paper — AI News Desk

Not a backtest. Llama reads the news, the model trades BTC/ETH, the curve updates every 30 minutes — public, head-to-head with Codex.

Open the live desk →